How Do You Predict Football Scores?
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Understanding football predictions requires some knowledge of math, specifically the Poisson Distribution.
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The Poisson Distribution is a mathematical theory that helps to calculate achievable results using historical mean data.
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Pretend that Team A scores 1.7 goals per match. By using this data into the distribution formula, we will get the following outcome
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Team A will score 0 goals 18.3% of the time
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Team A will score 1 goal 31% of the time
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Team A will score 2 goals 26.4% of the time
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Team A will score 3 goals 15% of the time
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