How Do You Predict Football Scores?

how to predict football score

In the twenty-first century, it is necessary to predict football scores because it helps in online football betting.  Jackpotking has made it way easier for you with its easy-to-use user interface and very helpful customer care service.

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Today we will learn to predict football scores with easy calculations.

How to predict football scores?

In order to understand football prediction, we would have to learn a little bit of math, to be exact, the Poisson Distribution. It is a mathematical theory that helps to sum up the achievable result using the historical mean data.

Let us use a clean illustration to make it more elaborate.

Pretend that Team A scores 1.7 goals per match. By using this data into the distribution formula, we will get the following outcome:

Team A will score 0 goals 18.3% of the time
Team A will score 1 goal 31% of the time
Team A will score 2 goals 26.4% of the time
Team A will score 3 goals 15% of the time

Predict Football Score: How does it work?

Let’s find out.

Before you can forecast the score, you have to make a couple of other steps. First of all, we have to find out the average number of goals by each team.

To do that, we would need the «Attack Strength» and «Defence Strength» data.

This data plays a very important role in our calculations. If our data range is too long, the results would not be satisfying, and if too limited, it could come about that some data is beyond our desired extent. You always can get this data from the seasonal statistics of any league or competition of football.

Attack Strength:

To calculate this part, we would need to find the average goals of home and away goals scored by each team. This is the easiest way to get the required numbers. You just have to divide the total amount of goals by the number of games they have played.

Total goals at home ground/number of games (from the season)
Total goals at foreign grounds/number of games (from the season)

To use an example, let’s utilize the 2015/2016 English Premier League information. By putting all the necessary facts into this simple formula, we would get:

Average goals made at home ground: 1.492
Average goals made at foreign grounds: 1.207

Attack Strength is the ratio between the league’s and the team’s average score.

Defense Strength:

The good thing here is, you do not have to do much more calculations here, because they have already been calculated. All you need to do is flip the results from before because the goals a home team scores are budged by the away team and vice versa.

For this reason, our results will look the following way:

Average goals made at home ground: 1.207
Average goals made at foreign grounds: 1.492

To repeat, the Defence Strength is the proportion among the league’s and the mentioned team’s average scores.

Prediction: Once you have gathered all that information, you can try to predict the goals now. Just apply these formulas one after another as mentioned below:

  • Step 1 – You have to take the total home goals scored by the team and divide them by the total number of home games.
  • Step 2 – Divide that answer you get by the league’s average home goals divided by the total home games.

Agenda:
Team’s home goals – THG
Team’s home matches – THM
League’s home goals – LHG
League’s home matches – LHM

(THG/THM) / (LHG/LHM) = Attack Strength

  • Step 3 – You have to take the total goals made by a team while away and divide it by the total number of away games.
  • Step 4 – Divide the answer you get by the league’s average goals made while away divided by the total away games.

Agenda:
Team’s conceded goals – TCG
The team’s away matches – TAM
League’s conceded goals – LCG
League’s away matches – LAM

(TCG/TAM) / (LCG/LAM) = Defense Strength

  • Step 5 – Now, all you have left to do is to calculate the probable number of goals. Now just make the multiplication of the home team’s Attack Strength by the foreign team’s Defense Strength and by the league’s average goals made at home ground.

Agenda:
Attack Strength- AS
Defense Strength- DS
Home Team- HT
Away Team- AT

HT AS x AT DS x LHG = Probable goals made by the home team
AT AS x HT DS x LHG = Probable goals made by the foreign team

Now you are fully ready to predict the score of your favorite football match. There are various sites that use the Poisson Distribution formula. It can do all of the calculations for you in just a fraction of seconds. Just input the goal occurrences and team’s scoring probability, and you will get the chances for each possible match.

Start Today:
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